It’s been a while since I’ve felt this level of excitement for a rugby tournament.  As the Springboks enter the home stretch of the 2009 Tri-Nations Rugby Tournament, butterflies dive-bomb my stomach every time I think about their next, exhilarating clash.

Update: 6 Sep 2009 – Find out from this post what the standings look like after Saturday, 5 Sep’s game between the Springboks and The Wallabies.

Rugby’s Spectacular Tri-Nations Tournament

If you’re not a rugby fan, or ignore Tri-Nations because it’s an all southern hemisphere affair, you’re missing out on the most spectacular full-contact team sport tournament on the planet.

The world’s top 3 rugby playing nations clash in this annual affair; South Africa’s Springboks, current rugby world champions and International Rugby Board (IRB) No.1, New Zealand’s All Blacks, who usually lead the IRB rankings, but are currently No.2, and Australia’s Wallabies who complete the trio of powerhouse rugby nations and are positioned on the IRB rankings at No.3.

The 2009 Tri-Nations started on July 18 and the last match will be in Wellington, New Zealand on September 19. Two grueling months of action packed rugby with 9 fixtures in as many locations in 3 countries.

Getting up to Speed with Springbok Domination

Last year’s Tri-Nations was a dismal affair for the Springboks who where pretty much out of the running just over halfway through the tournament.  This year the boot is quite on the other foot, and we’re just over halfway again, this time the Springboks are virtually a shoe-in to win.

Since their first game in this year’s tournament on 25 July against the All Blacks in Bloemfontein, the Springboks have made it clear that they were in it to win the 2009 Tri-Nations. The Springboks beat New Zealand in that game 28-19 and took the Tri-Nations standings’ lead over New Zealand who in turn out-played the Wallabies the week before, beating them 22-16.

The following weekend on August 1st, the Springboks reaffirmed the commitment by again beating the All Blacks 31-19. Morne Steyn was the poison on the unbeatable dart of the Springboks that day, scoring all the points with 8 penalty conversions and a try. South Africa then met the Wallabies for the first time on August 8 in Cape Town and made them feel quite unwelcome by handing them a 29-17 loss as souvenir.

Morne Steyn again booted 24 of the points, whilst Victor Matfield crashed the try-line as a reminder that the Boks can still score points on the ground too.  Reminiscent of the Naas Botha-era of rugby, the Springboks were then accused of playing boring rugby, winning with the boot, etc.  But the Springboks knew then, as they do now, that they dictate the game and paid no attention.

After the rest weekend and following the All Black / Wallabies clash the weekend after, the Springboks arrived in Perth 72 hours before their 29 August match against the Aussies.  Reminding fans and critics why the Springboks are the world champions, they plowed the fields of the Sabiaco Oval in Perth with spectacularly annihilating, ground-based rugby. The Wallabies, dazed and confused by a 22-6 half-time score, rallied valiantly to stop the Boks, but failed and the Springboks won 32-25.

What’s left of the 2009 Tri-Nations Tournament

Right, so here’s everything you need to know about the 2009 Tri Nations Rugby Tournament so far…

Scoreboard:

Opportunities to score more points:

Fixtures:

From the tables above, with 2 games left per team, you’ll note the following:

• Even if Australia score maximum points of 5 per game they will only end on 13 points, almost sure losers;
• New Zealand still have a snowball’s chance in hell at winning the tournament by 1 point, but only if
  1. they can win both their remaining games (4 x 2 = 8);
  2. they can score 4 tries or more in each of those games (2 x 1 = 2);
  3. they can prevent South Africa from scoring 4 tries;
  4. they can ensure South Africa loses by more than 7 points;
  5. Australia also manages 3 and 4 above;
• South Africa, who only needs 2 points to be out of reach of New Zealand, will win the 2009 Tri-Nations Rugby Tournament if they
  1. win any of their 2 remaining games;
  2. draw any of their remaining games;
  3. score 4 tries or more in both their remaining games;
  4. lose by less than 7 points in both their remaining games;
  5. score 4 tries or more in 1 game and lose by less than 7 points in another;

Essentially, if you’ve bet on the Springboks to do anything other than win this Tri-Nations Tournament, you’ve probably already lost your money.

However, with both New Zealand and Australia now playing for honour and respect in this tough world of rugby (add New Zealand’s slim chance to still win plus probably wanting IRB No.1 slot back), the remaining games promise to be filled with brutal, action-packed and ferocious rugby.  Which is exactly the reason why the mere thought of this Saturday’s clash and the next, is giving me heart palpitations.

There will be blood.

Well, last night’s Tri Nations match between South Africa and Australia went very much unlike I expected it to in my blog post on Thursday.

Playing at the grounds in Brisbane where a few years ago the Springboks lost with a massive 0 – 49 against the Aussies, the Boks once against suffered a defeat, albeit with a much smaller margin this time.

Whatever conditions conspired against the Boks to have reduced them to the unorganised-on-the-back-foot rugby that they played last night, the Aussies had… well, a ball.

This loss now puts New Zealand a little closer to the Tri Nations title, albeit still with a slim chance.

Things are suddenly not looking so rosy for the Springboks, and it’s now not just a question of waltzing to the title anymore.  If they want to be crowned the winners of the Tri Nations Tournament and avoid being embarrassingly pipped to the post, the Boks will have to work for it. Hard.

With 2 games left in the 2009 Tri-Nations Tournament

Scoreboard:

Opportunities to score more points:

Fixtures:

So, as an update from my last post, here’s what can happen now:

• Australia are still sure losers, but ironically they could end up determining the winners of the Tri Nations tournament;
• New Zealand has a increasingly better looking chance of squeezing in a win if:
  1. they can win both their remaining games (4 x 2 = 8); and
  2. they can score 4 tries or more in each of those games (2 x 1 = 2); and
  3. they can prevent South Africa from scoring 4 tries; and
  4. they can ensure South Africa loses by more than 7 points;
  5. Australia managed to do 3 and 4 in their games last night, so it’s not impossible;
• South Africa, who still needs just 2 points to win the 2009 Tri-Nations Rugby Tournament, must
  1. win their game against New Zealand next week; or
  2. draw that game (but when last did you see a drawn rugby game?); or
  3. if they’re going to lose, score 4 tries in their last game; and
  4. lose by less than 7 points;

From being so sure on Thursday that the Boks were winners already, I’m now only cautiously optimistic.

Australia have redeemed themselves by handing the Boks their first loss. New Zealand will also love to get on the bandwagon so that they too can claim a defeat over the Springboks in this Tri Nations. And once they’ve beaten the Boks, they only have to beat Australia (again) to claim the trophy.

There will be blood (and if New Zealand succeeds in doing that, there will be tears too).

After a nail-biting match the Springboks managed to stave off the All Black’s last ditch surge, and won what might as well have been the Tri Nations finals, 32 – 29 to claim the Tri Nations 2009 trophy.

When the South Africans conceded a penalty after just a minute and half of play and the New Zealanders pounced on the scoring opportunity to chalk up 3 points, I had flashes of Brisbane.  4 minutes later the Springboks got awarded a penalty of their own to equalise at 3 all, wiping my doubts.

The Bokke continued and opened up a lead they wouldn’t again relinquish and closed off the first half with a 22-12 lead.

The Springboks stood their ground in the 2nd half and opened up their lead to 17 points.  The All Blacks upped their game and in a particularly brilliant moment where the ball was passed in quick succession by overlapping players, they even looked like the All Blacks we fear-but-love.

Dying Minutes Action

And sure enough, their spirited attack paid dividends – hell, they even managed to win their own line-outs and steal 1 from the Springboks.

With minutes left and the All Blacks within 10 points of the Springboks, Dan Carter kicked from wide over on the left of the field placing the ball perfectly at the flag on far right of the field, where Richie McCaw literally stood waiting, picked it from the air and landed it in the corner with not a Bok in sight.

A move so brilliant, that as much as we hated it happening, the Springbok supporters had to applaud it for its sheer brilliance and flawless execusion.

With very few minutes remaining and the Springbok lead shrunk to only 3, the game became almost unbearable,  every second feeling like a minute, slowly ticking towards full time.  T All Blacks relentlessly pounded the Springbok defense, trying to punch a hole.  When the game time ran out the All Blacks had possession and in an all-or-nothing gamble Dan Carter tried to recreate the previous try, this time kicking from the far right of the field to the left.

2 metres from the Springbok try line 2 All Black players were ready. In slow motion the ball tumbled through the air. But luck was not on the All Black side and the ball went over the players head, just out of reach, and into touch.

The referee’s end-whistle was absolute bliss – the score fixed at 32-29 and the Springboks, bloody, but victorious and the Tri Nations 2009 champions.

Well done, Bokke!

Scored for the Springboks

• Fourie Du Preez – 5 pts (try);
• Jean De Villiers – 5 pts (try);
• Morne Styen – 13 pts (2 conversions, 2 penalties, 1 drop goal);
• Francois Steyn – 9 pts (3 penalties)

Scored for the All Blacks

• Sitiveni Sivivatu: 5 pts (try);
• Richie McCaw 5 pts (try);
• Daniel Carter 19 pts (2 conversions, 5 penalties);

With 1 games left in the 2009 Tri-Nations Tournament

Scoreboard:

Opportunities to score more points:

Fixtures:

Now all that remains is for the All Blacks to meet Australia in Wellington next week to see who will be the official loser of the 2009 Tri Nations.